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Basin-informed flood frequency analysis using deep learning exhibits consistent projected regional patterns over

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Climate change will increase flood risks in East and West coastal US regions by up to 40%, while decreasing flood trends in the Southwest due to reduced snowpack. An interactive map visualizes these future flood changes.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Hydrology
  • Climate science

Background:

  • Climate change significantly impacts flood-prone areas by altering precipitation and water cycle dynamics.
  • Understanding future flood trends is crucial for effective adaptation planning in vulnerable regions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the impact of climate change on future flood trends across the contiguous United States (CONUS).
  • To project changes in flood magnitude for 10-year and 100-year return periods using advanced modeling techniques.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model trained on gridMET meteorological data to estimate long-term river discharge at 638 sites.
  • Employed downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate projections as model inputs.
  • Developed an interactive map to visualize historical and projected flood changes for adaptation planning.

Main Results:

  • The LSTM model accurately replicated observed river discharge patterns.
  • Projected flood magnitudes show distinct geographical patterns: increasing trends (+10% to +40%) in East and West coastal regions, and decreasing trends (-10% to -30%) in the Southwest.
  • Increasing flood trends are linked to increased extreme precipitation and altered peak flow timing, while decreasing trends are associated with reduced snowpack.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change is projected to significantly alter flood dynamics across the CONUS, with regional variations.
  • Adaptation strategies must consider these projected changes, particularly the contrasting trends in coastal and southwestern areas.
  • The developed interactive map serves as a valuable tool for supporting climate adaptation planning and flood risk management.