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Updated: May 13, 2025

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Can fertility decline help explain gender pay convergence?

Alexandra Killewald¹, Nino José Cricco²

¹University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States.

Social Forces; a Scientific Medium of Social Study and Interpretation

|April 14, 2025

Summary

Declining fertility rates among US employees explain nearly a quarter of the gender pay gap

Keywords:

family inequality/social stratification

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Published on: October 13, 2018

Area of Science:

Sociology
Economics
Labor Studies

Background:

Motherhood wage penalties and fatherhood wage premiums are known contributors to the gender pay gap.
Previous research often analyzes these effects cross-sectionally or focuses on firm-level changes, neglecting fertility's role in pay convergence.
This study integrates fertility trends with analyses of gender pay convergence over time.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the extent to which declining employee fertility rates explain gender pay convergence in the US from 1980 to 2018.
To quantify the contribution of fertility decline to the attenuation of the US gender pay gap.

Main Methods:

Utilized descriptive decomposition analysis.
Employed data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID).
Controlled for human capital and job characteristics.

Main Results:

Fertility decline accounted for almost one-quarter of gross gender pay convergence between 1980 and 2018.
Even after controlling for other factors, fertility decline explained 8% of the US gender pay gap's attenuation.
Fertility decline was fastest in the 1980s, contributing to stalled gender pay parity progress due to persistent parenthood-wage associations.

Conclusions:

Declining fertility rates are a significant, yet often overlooked, factor in explaining historical gender pay convergence.
The impact of fertility decline on pay gap attenuation is substantial, comparable to changes in education and work experience.
Persistent gendered wage effects of parenthood, combined with changing fertility patterns, highlight ongoing challenges for achieving gender pay parity.