Centralization or Equalization? Policy Trend Guidance for Improving Grain Production Security in China

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Economics
• Policy Analysis
• Food Security Studies

Background:

• Global grain production faces risks from geopolitical instability and extreme weather.
• National policies are crucial for ensuring grain production security and farmer incomes.
• China has implemented various policies to support grain production.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantitatively analyze Chinese government policies supporting grain production.
• To assess the spatial response of China's grain production to these policies.
• To inform future policy trends for enhancing grain production security.

Main Methods:

• Content analysis to construct a policy quantification model.
• Sensitivity models to analyze policy impacts.
• Difference-in-differences model to study spatial responses.

Main Results:

• Grain production in main grain-producing areas (MGPAs) showed the strongest policy response.
• Grain production-marketing-balanced areas (GPMBAs) had the second-highest response, followed by main grain-marketing areas (MGMAs).
• Direct grain subsidies significantly increased grain production, particularly in MGPAs.

Conclusions:

• Future Chinese grain policy should centralize production towards MGPAs.
• Support policies and funds should be directed towards MGPAs.
• Improving compensation mechanisms for MGPAs is essential for enhancing production capacity and ensuring food security.