Centralization or Equalization? Policy Trend Guidance for Improving Grain Production Security in China

Global grain production faces severe risks and challenges, such as the complex and volatile international situation and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events. The effectiveness of national policies intended to support grain production security is becoming increasingly important. China has implemented a range of policies to promote grain production and increase the incomes of grain farmers. This study constructed a policy quantification model using a content analysis method to quantitatively analyze the various grain production support policies issued by the Chinese government. The application of sensitivity models and the difference-in-differences model to study the spatial response of China's grain production to these policies enabled an assessment of the future policy trends of China, with the aim of enhancing grain production security. Grain production in the main grain-producing areas (MGPAs) responded best to the policy, the grain production-marketing-balanced areas (GPMBAs) were the second most responsive, and the main grain-marketing areas (MGMAs) responded to the policy to a lesser extent. The direct grain subsidy policy significantly contributed to an increase in grain production, especially in the MGPAs. The results of the study suggest that it would be more prudent for China's future grain policy to guide the centralization of grain production toward the MGPAs. It will also be necessary to ensure that the government's various support policies and subsidy funds are inclined toward the MGPAs, and the compensation mechanism should be improved to serve the interests of the MGPAs in terms of resources, ecology, and economy. This will help to enhance the comprehensive production capacity and production efficiency of the MGPAs, thereby guaranteeing China's food security.