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MIFlu: Large Language Model-Based Multimodal Influenza Forecasting Scheme.
Accurate influenza forecasting is crucial for public health. A new multimodal approach, MIFlu, uses large language models (LLMs) to fuse text and time-series data, improving influenza prediction by up to 26.2%.
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Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Computational Biology
- Artificial Intelligence
Background:
- Accurate influenza forecasting is vital for public health interventions.
- Current deep-learning models for influenza prediction are limited by their inability to incorporate contextual information.
- Large language models (LLMs) show promise in enhancing time-series predictions by integrating text data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose MIFlu, a novel multimodal influenza forecasting scheme.
- To leverage LLMs for fusing contextual text information with influenza time-series data.
- To improve the accuracy and robustness of influenza early forecasting.
Main Methods:
- MIFlu utilizes two LLMs: one for extracting text embeddings from user prompts and another for forecasting.
- It fuses text embeddings with time-series embeddings of influenza occurrences.
- The fused embeddings are then used by the forecasting LLM to predict future influenza trends.
Main Results:
- MIFlu demonstrated superior performance compared to existing predictive models in extensive experiments.
- Prediction accuracy improved by up to 26.2% over state-of-the-art models.
- Analysis confirmed the impact of text embedders, hyperparameters, and data volume on forecasting accuracy.
Conclusions:
- The proposed MIFlu scheme effectively integrates contextual text information into influenza forecasting.
- Multimodal approaches using LLMs offer significant advantages over unimodal methods for epidemiological predictions.
- MIFlu represents a promising advancement in public health surveillance and preparedness for influenza outbreaks.