Trends in cutaneous malignant melanoma mortality in Europe from 1992 to 2021

Cutaneous melanoma is the most aggressive skin cancer, causing 58 000 deaths globally in 2022. While incidence rates are rising, mortality trends vary globally, especially in Europe.

To analyse melanoma mortality trends across 28 European countries from 1992 to 2021, focusing on sex and specific age groups (< 45, 45-74 and ≥ 75 years).

A longitudinal ecological study was conducted, using melanoma mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease database (1992-2021). Data from 28 European countries were categorized into four regions. We stratified mortality data by age and sex, calculating age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) using the 2013 European Standard Population. Joinpoint regression identified trend changes, analysing the independent effects of age, period and cohort factors.

Mortality rates varied significantly by country, sex and age. Patients aged > 75 years accounted for increased ASMRs until 2015, while younger patients' mortality rates have declined since the 1990s. Notably, ASMRs for those aged > 75 years have stabilized or decreased in recent years. ASMRs rose for both male and female patients across all cohorts born up to the 1950s and 1960s, levelling off afterwards. However, recent cohorts in Central and Eastern Europe, along with men in Northern Europe, show an upward trend.

This study highlights the complexity of melanoma mortality trends and the significant impacts of age and sex. The observed increases in Central and Eastern Europe and among male patients in Northern Europe necessitate continued monitoring and adaptive strategies to address potential mortality rate increases in these demographic groups.