Predicting outcomes using neural networks in the intensive care unit

Patients in intensive care units (ICUs) require rapid critical decision making. Modern ICUs are data rich, where information streams from diverse sources. Machine learning (ML) and neural networks (NN) can leverage the rich data for prognostication and clinical care. They can handle complex nonlinear relationships in medical data and have advantages over traditional predictive methods. A number of models are used: (1) Feedforward networks; and (2) Recurrent NN and convolutional NN to predict key outcomes such as mortality, length of stay in the ICU and the likelihood of complications. Current NN models exist in silos; their integration into clinical workflow requires greater transparency on data that are analyzed. Most models that are accurate enough for use in clinical care operate as 'black-boxes' in which the logic behind their decision making is opaque. Advances have occurred to see through the opacity and peer into the processing of the black-box. In the near future ML is positioned to help in clinical decision making far beyond what is currently possible. Transparency is the first step toward validation which is followed by clinical trust and adoption. In summary, NNs have the transformative ability to enhance predictive accuracy and improve patient management in ICUs. The concept should soon be turning into reality.