Resilience of the acute sector in recovery from COVID-19 pressures

The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the management and delivery of acute healthcare. To tackle the pandemic, hospitals redesigned their organisational models to provide a rapid increase in acute care assessment and treatment capacity for patients with COVID-19 whilst also trying to maintain delivery of care for patients with non-COVID-19 healthcare needs. This capacity to adjust and recover after COVID-19 might be shaped by both measures taken by acute hospitals and wider hospital pre-pandemic characteristics. The aim of this study is to examine how hospital characteristics in acute care are associated with recovery of elective activity after the height of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to pre-pandemic levels. Using patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics aggregated at monthly-trust level for all English National Health Service (NHS) acute hospital trusts in 2019 and 2021, we estimate the associations between hospital recovery rate and hospital pre-pandemic characteristics by employing linear regressions of the proportional change over time in elective activity against a set of explanatory variables related to supply factors (e.g., hospital size, workforce, type of hospital, regional location), demand factors (e.g., population need, patient case-mix) and time factors. On average, English NHS acute hospital trusts did not fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. The results show that the explanatory variables are not systematically associated with hospital recovery rate, excepting regional differences. Hospital trusts not located in London, especially in the North of England, are associated with a lower recovery (less resilience) of total elective activity and orthopaedic and vascular surgical elective activity. The implication for policy development is that the evolution of hospital recovery rates in elective activity varied across English regions, especially for high-volume and high-risk elective specialties, with better recovery in London than elsewhere.