Environmental and anthropogenic influences on fire patterns in tropical dry deciduous forests

Wildfires pose a considerable threat to forests and wildlife, with tropical dry deciduous forests being particularly susceptible. These ecosystems, characterized by seasonal dry periods, create conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Forest managers require detailed insights into the spatial and temporal patterns of fires, coupled with an understanding of the factors influencing fire risk to effectively respond to potential fire outbreaks. Our research focuses on mapping the fire hotspots in a globally important protected area in central India and understanding the factors that increase a site's susceptibility to wildfires. We conducted this study in the Satpura tiger reserve- a tentative UNESCO World Heritage Site. Utilizing the active fire data over 20 years (2002-2021) and eco-geographic variables, we mapped the fire hotspots and investigated the underlying drivers of these fire events. An analysis of the monthly fire regime suggests that in the fire season, fire counts of the previous month and higher temperatures significantly increased the fire counts for the current month, while greater precipitation in the preceding month had a significantly negative impact on the current month's fire counts. Using spatial models in a Bayesian framework with conditional autoregressive priors, we found that slope and distance to water have a significantly positive association with fire counts, while aquatic coverage, road density, and distance to settlements have a significantly negative association with it. Our findings would help authorities across tropical deciduous forests refine their preparedness, enhancing their ability to manage forest fires more efficiently.