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Predictive value of HBeAg titer dynamics for HBsAg clearance in pediatric chronic hepatitis B
Sukjin Hong1, Jun Hyun Hwang2, Keumoung Kim3
1Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, Daegu Catholic University, Daegu, Republic of Korea.
Insights
Younger age and early declines in HBeAg levels predict HBsAg loss in pediatric chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. A new model uses these factors to forecast treatment success, aiding personalized pediatric CHB management.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Hepatology
- Virology
- Immunology
Background:
- Functional cure of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is more achievable in children than adults.
- Identifying predictors of HBsAg loss in pediatric CHB is vital for optimizing treatment.
- HBeAg titer dynamics are potential indicators of treatment response in pediatric CHB.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the predictive value of HBeAg titer dynamics for HBsAg clearance in pediatric CHB.
- To develop a predictive model for HBsAg clearance probability in children with CHB.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of 119 children (aged 1-18 years) with CHB treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues.
- Evaluation of HBsAg loss status and age stratification (≤6 vs. >6 years).
- Longitudinal HBeAg titer measurements during the first 12 months and logistic regression modeling.
Main Results:
- Younger age (≤6 years) was the sole significant predictor of HBsAg loss in multivariate analysis (HR 7.69).
- Steeper HBeAg titer decline trajectories were observed in patients who achieved HBsAg loss.
- A predictive model incorporating age and HBeAg titer dynamics demonstrated high accuracy.
Conclusions:
- Early HBeAg titer dynamics and age at treatment initiation predict HBsAg clearance in pediatric CHB.
- A predictive model using semi-quantitative HBeAg measurements can aid clinical decision-making.
- Individualized treatment strategies for pediatric CHB can be enhanced by this predictive approach.
Introduction:
Achieving functional cure of chronic hepatitis B (CHB), characterized by the loss of HBV DNA and HBsAg, remains challenging in adults but demonstrates higher success rates in children. Elucidating the factors influencing HBsAg loss in pediatric patients is crucial for optimizing treatment strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of HBeAg titer dynamics for HBsAg clearance in pediatric CHB and develop a predictive model incorporating these dynamics.
Material And Methods:
This retrospective cohort study analyzed 119 children aged 1-18 years with CHB treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues. Patient outcomes were evaluated using two independent classification approaches: HBsAg loss status and age stratification (≤6 vs. >6 years). Treatment response was assessed through longitudinal HBeAg titer measurements during the first 12 months. Based on identified predictors, a logistic regression model was developed incorporating age and HBeAg titer dynamics to predict HBsAg clearance probability.
Results:
The study population exhibited a median age of 6.2 years. Factors associated with HBsAg loss encompassed younger age, female sex, and absence of breakthrough. In multivariate analysis, younger age was identified as the only significant factor. The cumulative HBsAg loss rate demonstrated markedly higher values in the ≤6 years group (Hazard ratio 7.69). HBeAg titer decline exhibited significantly steeper trajectories in the HBsAg loss group. The developed predictive model, "Log Odds = -1.182 + 0.308 × log_reduction-0.205 × age", demonstrated good performance with high accuracy.
Conclusions:
Early HBeAg titer dynamics combined with age at treatment initiation may serve as useful predictors of HBsAg clearance in pediatric CHB. Our predictive model, utilizing readily available semi-quantitative HBeAg measurements, could potentially assist clinicians in therapeutic decision-making and individualized treatment strategies.
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