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Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates.

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Future tropical cyclone risks will increase globally by 2050. Uncertainty in climate and socioeconomic factors significantly impacts risk projections, shifting with different modeling approaches.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Risk Assessment
  • Environmental Modeling

Background:

  • Future tropical cyclone risks are influenced by climate change and socioeconomic development, introducing significant uncertainties.
  • Assessing these risks requires understanding model setup influences on outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Investigate the drivers of future tropical cyclone risks (climate vs. socioeconomic changes).
  • Quantify uncertainty propagation through risk models using alternate system representations.
  • Evaluate model input contributions to output uncertainty.

Main Methods:

  • Compared drivers, uncertainty, and sensitivity across four distinct tropical cyclone models.
  • Analyzed risk modeling chains with varying input representations.
  • Differentiated between aleatory, epistemic, and normative uncertainties.

Main Results:

  • Global average tropical cyclone risk projected to increase by 1-5% by 2050.
  • Maximum risk increases by 2100 range from 10% to 400%, highly dependent on model choice, region, and inputs.
  • Dominant sources of uncertainty vary with modeling choices.

Conclusions:

  • Findings are generalizable across different tropical cyclone models.
  • Guidance is provided to reduce uncertainties and improve decision-making for future climate and socioeconomic impacts.
  • Understanding model-driven uncertainty is crucial for accurate risk assessment.