Assessing Structural Classification Using AlphaFold2 Models Through ECOD-Based Comparative Analysis

Identifying homologous proteins is a fundamental task in structural bioinformatics. While AlphaFold2 has revolutionized protein structure prediction, the extent to which structure comparison of its models can reliably detect homologs remains unclear. In this study, we evaluate the feasibility of homology detection using AlphaFold2-predicted structures through structural comparisons. We considered the classification of the ECOD database for experimental structures as the correct standard and obtained their corresponding predicted models from AlphaFoldDB. To ensure blind assessment, we divided the structures into test and train sets according to their release date. Predicted and experimental 3D structures in the test and train sets were compared using 3D structure comparisons (MATRAS, Dali, and Foldseek) and sequence comparisons (BLAST and HHsearch). The results were evaluated based on the homology annotations in the ECOD database. For top-1 accuracy, the performance of structural comparisons was comparable to that of HHsearch. However, when considering metrics that included all structural pairs, including more remote homology, structural comparisons outperformed HHsearch. No significant differences were observed between comparisons of experimental versus experimental, predicted versus experimental, and predicted versus predicted structures with pLDDT (prediction confidence) values greater than 60. We also demonstrate that predicted protein structures, determined by NMR, had lower pLDDT values and contained fewer coils than their experimental counterparts. These findings highlight the potential of AlphaFold2 models in structural classification and suggest that 3D structural searches should be conducted not only against the PDB but also against AlphaFoldDB to identify more potential homologs.