Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir for COVID-19 Among Individuals at High Risk: A Modeling Study

To prevent severe disease, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (nirmatrelvir/r) is administered to individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who are at high risk, and it is currently priced at approximately $1375 in the Netherlands. We aim to evaluate the health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/r among patients with high risk of severe disease.

We used a decision-analytic model parameterized with clinical and health care utilization data from individuals at high risk who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 between September 2021 and November 2023. We assumed baseline event rates of 1% for hospitalization and 0.05% for intensive care unit admission. Nirmatrelvir/r-related factors were varied. Costs were collected from a third-party payer's perspective, and the cost-effectiveness threshold was <$88 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for uncertainties.

This study included 949 individuals at high risk who were infected with SARS-CoV-2. The sample had a median age of 65 years (IQR, 53-75), and 416 (44%) participants were female. Comorbidities included obesity (25%), hematologic malignancy (21%), solid organ/stem cell transplantation (17%), and immunosuppressive medication use (47%). With an assumed low effectiveness, nirmatrelvir/r could reduce hospitalizations and deaths (relative risk reduction, 21% and 44%, respectively). With high effectiveness, relative risk reductions of 89% and 90% were calculated for hospitalizations and deaths. Higher baseline rates for intensive care unit and hospital admission positively influenced cost-effectiveness thresholds. Nirmatrelvir/r is cost-effectively priced at <$512 with low effectiveness and <$1071 with high effectiveness.

With current low baseline event rates for hospitalization, nirmatrelvir/r has the potential, not only to reduce hospitalizations and deaths in individuals with COVID-19 who are at high risk, but to do so cost-effectively with a drug price reduction of 22% to 63%. These findings are relevant for policy makers and physicians and emphasize the importance of reevaluating current drug pricing.

NCT05195060 (ClinicalTrials.gov).