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A Murine Model of Dengue Virus-induced Acute Viral Encephalitis-like Disease
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Dengue dynamics in India: Harnessing auto regressive integrated moving average model for predictive insights
Sashikanta Tripathy1, Amit Kumar Mishra1, Manisha Ruikar1
1Department of Community and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India.
Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care
|April 21, 2025
Summary
Dengue cases and deaths in India show an increasing trend, with projections indicating a continued rise. Urgent public health interventions are needed to combat this growing threat.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Diseases
Background:
- Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a significant global health concern, affecting nearly half the world's population.
- South East Asian nations, particularly India, face a heightened risk due to climate and environmental factors contributing to increased Dengue incidence.
- Annual infections range from 100 to 400 million globally, underscoring the disease's widespread impact.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the epidemiological trends of Dengue cases and fatalities in India.
- To forecast future Dengue incidence and mortality rates in India for the upcoming years.
Main Methods:
- A time series analysis was conducted using Dengue data from 1999 to 2023.
- The Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was developed using Gretl software for forecasting.
- Model stationarity was assessed, and predictions were generated for Dengue cases and deaths for 2024-2026.
Main Results:
- An upward trend in Dengue cases and deaths was observed throughout the study period in India.
- Forecasts for 2024-2026 predict a sustained increase in both Dengue cases and mortality.
- Projected figures for 2026 include 309,836 Dengue cases and 533 deaths.
Conclusions:
- The escalating Dengue burden necessitates immediate and targeted public health interventions.
- Policymakers and health authorities should prioritize implementing effective preventive strategies to control Dengue's rise in India.
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