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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 10, 2025

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Published on: March 31, 2023

Ocean-atmosphere feedbacks key to NAO decadal predictability.

Casey R Patrizio¹, Panos J Athanasiadis¹, Doug M Smith²

¹CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy.

NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science

|April 21, 2025

Summary

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) shows decadal predictability, but its mechanisms remain unclear. This study reveals ocean-atmosphere interactions are key, with feedback loops influencing prediction skill across different climate models.

Keywords:

Atmospheric science Climate sciences Ocean sciences

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Oceanography
Atmospheric Science

Background:

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) significantly impacts climate on decadal timescales.
Decadal predictability of the NAO is suggested but underlying mechanisms, particularly ocean-atmosphere interactions, are not fully understood.

Purpose of the Study:

To assess decadal prediction skill for the NAO across multiple decadal prediction systems (DPSs).
To investigate the role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in NAO decadal predictability.

Main Methods:

Retrospective forecasts from 1960-2020 using eight different DPSs.
Comparison of DPS skill with observation-based data.
Analysis of ocean-NAO interactions, including sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean circulation feedbacks.

Main Results:

Significant spread in NAO prediction skill exists across the assessed DPSs.
Skill differences are linked to how systems represent ocean-NAO interactions.
Positive feedback between subpolar SSTs and NAO is identified, but may be too weak in models compared to observations.
Delayed negative feedback between NAO and ocean circulation opposes this positive feedback, explaining skill disparities.

Conclusions:

North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions are crucial for NAO decadal predictability.
Accurate representation of ocean-NAO feedbacks is essential for improving decadal NAO forecasts.