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Dynamical analysis of scabies delayed epidemic model with second-order global stability
Emad Fadhal1, Ali Raza2,3,4, Eugénio M Rocha4
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia.
Plos One
|April 21, 2025
Summary
This study introduces a mathematical model using delay differential equations to understand scabies transmission dynamics. The findings enhance epidemic management strategies for this widespread skin disease.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- Scabies is a highly contagious skin disease affecting all ages, with significant impact in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
- Mathematical modeling is crucial for understanding disease dynamics and informing public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and analyze a mathematical model for scabies transmission dynamics.
- To investigate the impact of delays on scabies epidemiology.
- To provide insights for effective epidemic management.
Main Methods:
- Development of a delay differential equation (DDE) model with four subpopulations: unvaccinated, vaccinated, infected, and recovered.
- Rigorous mathematical analysis including positivity, boundedness, existence, uniqueness, equilibria, and reproduction number.
- Sensitivity analysis and local/global stability analysis of the model.
- Numerical simulations to validate theoretical findings.
Main Results:
- The mathematical model's fundamental properties (positivity, boundedness, existence, uniqueness) were proven.
- Equilibria, reproduction number, and stability (local and global) were rigorously analyzed.
- Numerical simulations confirmed the theoretical results, demonstrating the model's validity.
Conclusions:
- Delay-based modeling offers a valuable approach to studying scabies dynamics.
- Advanced stability analysis enhances understanding of epidemic spread and control.
- The model provides a framework for improved scabies management and intervention strategies.
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