Global land system maps at 1 km resolution for 1.5 °C climate

Area of Science:

• Earth System Science
• Climate Change Modeling
• Land Use Change Analysis

Background:

• Climate pledges aim for temperature control but have cascading Earth system effects.
• Accurate land change forecast products are crucial for evaluating these effects.
• Existing forecast products rely on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a comprehensive approach for generating high-resolution land system maps for 2100.
• To create maps under a 1.5°C climate scenario and a baseline scenario.
• To provide reliable quantitative support for global climate change mitigation research.

Main Methods:

• Harmonization of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), Globeland30, and the Land-N2N model.
• Generation of land system maps with 1km spatial resolution and 30 land system types.
• Evaluation of the Land-N2N model using kappa coefficient and Figure of Merit (FoM).

Main Results:

• The Land-N2N model demonstrated high reliability with average kappa coefficient of 83.14% and FoM of 8.48%.
• Generated land system maps reflect local land cover densities (high, medium, low).
• The study produced a novel dataset for 2100 land systems under specific climate scenarios.

Conclusions:

• The developed approach provides reliable, finer-resolution quantitative support for global climate change mitigation.
• The generated land system maps are essential data for related Earth system research.
• This work advances the capability to forecast land system changes under different climate scenarios.