Explaining international differences in excess mortality due to Covid-19

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Econometrics

Background:

• Cross-country variations in COVID-19 mortality rates are substantial.
• Numerous socio-economic and environmental factors are correlated with COVID-19 outcomes.
• Identifying key drivers is challenging due to the large number of potential explanatory variables.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify the most significant factors explaining cross-country variations in COVID-19 excess mortality.
• To overcome the challenge of multicollinearity and model selection in a high-dimensional setting.

Main Methods:

• Employed Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) for robust statistical inference.
• Utilized excess mortality data for standardized international comparisons.
• Focused on a comprehensive set of social, economic, and environmental variables.

Main Results:

• The strength of the Rule of Law emerged as a primary determinant in controlling COVID-19.
• Geographical factors, specifically rainfall and the presence of seaborders, were also identified as significant.
• BMA effectively identified key predictors from a large pool of potential factors.

Conclusions:

• Governance, particularly the Rule of Law, plays a critical role in pandemic containment.
• Environmental and geographical characteristics are important considerations in understanding mortality disparities.
• The study highlights the utility of BMA for analyzing complex, multi-factorial public health issues.