Evaluation of Perioperative Cardiovascular Event Risk in Gastrointestinal Surgery - Predictive Modeling and Risk
Hiromasa Ito1,2, Tomohisa Seki1, Yoshimasa Kawazoe1,3
1Department of Healthcare Information Management, The University of Tokyo Hospital.
Background:
Preoperative risk assessment is very important to ensure surgical safety and predict postoperative complications. However, no large-scale studies have evaluated the risk of perioperative cardiovascular events in Japan. This study evaluated perioperative cardiovascular events using real-world data. In addition, the applicability of machine learning to risk stratification was examined to develop a predictive model for perioperative cardiovascular events.
Methods And Results:
This was an observational cohort study using the Japan Medical Data Center database, which includes claim and health examination data in Japan, between January 2005 and April 2021. In all, 133,634 gastrointestinal surgeries were included in the analysis. The primary outcome was 30-day risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The 30-day MACE incidence rate following surgery was 3.8%. Machine learning was used to perform a binary classification task to predict MACE occurrence within 30 days after surgery. A clustering algorithm was developed based on the Shapley additive explanation values obtained from training data, and generalizability was evaluated using test data. Of the variables, age, history of ischemic heart disease or heart failure, history of stroke, diabetes, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, cases of malignancy, and pancreatic biliary surgery were identified as factors associated with MACE occurrence.
Conclusions:
A machine learning model built from basic clinical information, comorbidities, and surgical information demonstrated the capacity to stratify MACE risk in patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery.
