Trends in lower extremity peripheral arterial disease incidence since 1990 and forecasting future statistics using Global Burden of Disease 2021: a time-series analysis

Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (LEPAD) significantly affects quality of life and is associated with severe cardiovascular risks. Studies on its long-term incidence trends are limited.

This study aims to analyze global trends in LEPAD incidence from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database and to forecast future trends between 2022 and 2030, providing insights for healthcare planning and resource allocation.

Data were extracted from the GBD 2021 database by genders, age groups, continents, and sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. Using Joinpoint regression analysis, annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) were calculated to assess age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) historical trends. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict ASIR between 2022 and 2030.

The global ASIR of LEPAD showed a slight decrease from 1990 to 2021, though regional differences were notable. In 2021, the highest ASIR was in the Americas, while Africa had the lowest. Gender and age disparities were significant, and females and older populations were at higher risk. ARIMA predictions indicate a stable ASIR trend from 2025 onward.

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of LEPAD incidence trends and a forecast through 2030. While global incidence may stabilize, the rising burden in lower-income countries calls for prioritizing early intervention and health education in high-risk regions. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted resource allocation and strategic prevention efforts.