Future Habitat Shifts and Economic Implications for Ophiocordyceps sinensis Under Climate Change

Ophiocordyceps sinensis is a vital and unique traditional medicine native to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its adjacent regions. Its habitat has significantly diminished in recent years due to commercial harvesting and climate change. Although studies on the habitat of O. sinensis have been conducted, the impact of climate change on its future habitat and economy remains unclear. This study utilizes a comprehensive dataset on O. sinensis occurrences and employs a multi-model approach (constructed by Classification Tree Analysis [CTA], Flexible Discriminant Analysis [FDA], Generalized Boosted Model [GBM], Generalized Linear Models [GLM], Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines [MARS], Random Forest [RF], and MaxEnt models) to simulate its potential suitable habitat distribution on the TP under current and future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Through this modeling process, we examined the primary environmental factors influencing its distribution. Our results indicated that China produces 91.9% of the world's O. sinensis, with over 82% of this production concentrated in Sichuan, Tibet, and Qinghai Provinces. Altitude, warmest quarter precipitation, coldest quarter mean temperature, and herbaceous vegetation cover accounted for 90% of the variation in the distribution of O. sinensis. The suitable habitat was primarily concentrated at altitudes of 3500-4500 m above sea level and was expected to shift to higher altitudes in the future. The predicted habitats under different emission scenarios vary. Under the low emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), there was a slight increase in suitable habitat, with a 0.14% increase by the 2050s and a 0.65% increase by the 2100s. Conversely, under the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), there was a notable decrease in suitable habitat, with a projected 4.32% reduction by the 2050s and a 5.34% reduction by the 2100s. Additionally, the production of O. sinensis was expected to increase by 0.2%-5.2% under SSP1-2.6 and decrease by 0.5%-7.2% under SSP5-8.5 in the main production areas in China. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the conservation and sustainable harvest of O. sinensis, which is crucial for future conservation efforts, maintaining ecological balance, and supporting the sustainable socio-economic development of local communities.