Neural correlates of risk decision-making: Insights from the balloon analogue risk task and exponential-weight...

Risk decision-making involves complex cognitive processes, posing challenges in cognitive neuroscience. This study used the Exponential-Weight Mean-Variance (EWMV) model and intersubject representational similarity analysis (ISRSA) to examine the neural mechanisms of five key processes-prior belief, learning rate, risk preference, loss aversion, and behavioral consistency-during the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). We identified distinct and overlapping neural substrates across three BART stages. The reward system, including the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) and lateral orbitofrontal cortex (lOFC), influenced risk preferences and flexibility through dynamic outcome assessments. The cognitive control network, including the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) and superior parietal lobule (SPL), regulated risk preferences and behavioral consistency. The default mode network, especially the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), was linked to prior beliefs and risk preferences. Emotional and value-based regions, such as the rostral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), modulated learning rates and loss aversion, supporting adaptive behavior. This study highlights the interaction of cognitive, emotional, and evaluative processes in risk decision-making, offering insights into the neural substrates of risk-related behaviors.