From foster care to incarceration: A prospective analysis of the National Youth in Transition Database

Children in foster care often face significant adversity in adulthood, including a heightened risk of incarceration. Yet, it is uncertain whether adult incarceration rates differ between youth who age out of foster care, youth who are reunified with their families, and those adopted or placed with a legal guardian.

This prospective study investigates the prevalence of adult incarceration for youth in care at age 17 and examines whether the risk of incarceration varies by foster care exit type, both overall and among different racial/ethnic groups.

The sample consists of 24,573 youth in foster care who participated in the National Youth in Transition Outcome Survey shortly after their 17th, 19th, and 21st birthdays.

The study utilizes prevalence reporting and logistic regression analyses. Regression models include interaction terms to assess whether race/ethnicity moderates the impact of foster care exit type on adult incarceration.

Over 30 % of youth reported incarceration by age 17, and nearly 30 % experienced incarceration between 17 and 20. Compared to youth who aged out of care, youth who reunified had a higher risk of incarceration while youth who were adopted or placed in guardianship had a lower risk. Compared to White males, Black males faced a higher risk of incarceration, while Hispanic females were less likely than White females to be incarcerated. Primary race/ethnicity categories did not significantly moderate the effect of exit type.

Although considerable attention has been given to youth aging out of care, this study highlights the need for greater attention to the well-being of youth who reunify with their families.