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An enhanced CNN with ResNet50 and LSTM deep learning forecasting model for climate change decision making.

Ahmed M Elshewey1, Mona M Jamjoom2, Eman H Alkhammash3

  • 1Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Computers and Information, Suez University, P.O. BOX: 43221, Suez, Egypt. ahmed.elshewey@fci.suezuni.edu.eg.

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Accurate climate change forecasting for temperature and wind power is vital for wind energy systems. A new hybrid deep learning model, CNN-ResNet50-LSTM, shows superior performance in predicting these factors, aiding future energy planning.

Keywords:
CNNClimate changeDeep learningLSTMResNet50TemperatureWind power

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science and Renewable Energy
  • Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Background:

  • Climate change significantly impacts wind energy production through alterations in temperature, wind speed, and patterns.
  • Accurate forecasting of climatic factors is crucial for stable wind energy system operation and effective power management.
  • Traditional forecasting models struggle with the complex, nonlinear relationships in climate data, limiting their accuracy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and evaluate a hybrid deep learning model for enhanced forecasting of temperature and wind power under climate change.
  • To address the limitations of traditional models in capturing complex climatic data dynamics.
  • To provide a tool for improved wind energy system planning and management.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a hybrid deep learning model, CNN-ResNet50-LSTM, integrating Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), ResNet50, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM).
  • Utilized three public datasets: Wind Turbine Scada (Scada), Saudi Arabia Weather history (SA), and Wind Power Generation Data (WPG).
  • Evaluated forecasting accuracy using metrics like R-squared, MSE, MAE, MedAE, and RMSE, comparing against five traditional regression models.

Main Results:

  • The CNN-ResNet50-LSTM model achieved superior performance across all tested datasets and forecasting tasks.
  • Achieved R-squared scores of 98.84% (wind power, Scada), 99.01% (temperature, SA), 98.58% (temperature, WPG), and 98.35% (wind power, WPG).
  • Demonstrated significant improvements over traditional regression models in forecasting accuracy.

Conclusions:

  • The CNN-ResNet50-LSTM hybrid model is highly effective for forecasting temperature and wind power, crucial for climate change adaptation in wind energy.
  • The model shows strong potential for long-term climate change prediction, with applications up to 2030.
  • This advanced forecasting capability supports better decision-making and enhances the resilience of wind energy infrastructure.