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Related Concept Videos

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Regression analysis is a statistical tool that describes a mathematical relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
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Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
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Explainable machine learning to predict the cost of capital.

Niklas Bussmann1, Paolo Giudici1,2, Alessandra Tanda1,2

  • 1Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.

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This study reveals that firm size, financial performance, and non-financial factors, including country institutional quality, significantly predict a firm

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Shapley ValuesXGBoost modelscost of capitalexplainable AInon-financial disclosure

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Area of Science:

  • Finance
  • Economics
  • Artificial Intelligence

Background:

  • The ex-ante cost of capital reflects investor perceptions of firm risk.
  • Previous literature primarily focused on financial factors, overlooking non-financial aspects.
  • Understanding predictors of the cost of capital is crucial for investment decisions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of both financial and non-financial factors on a firm's ex-ante cost of capital.
  • To identify key predictors of investor risk perception using advanced analytical methods.
  • To explore the role of country-level institutional quality in determining the cost of capital.

Main Methods:

  • Application of the XGBoost algorithm for predictive modeling.
  • Utilization of explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods: Shapley value and Lorenz Model Selection.
  • Analysis of a global dataset comprising over 1,400 listed companies.

Main Results:

  • Confirmed the significance of financial indicators like firm size and Return on Equity (ROE).
  • Identified non-financial firm features and country institutional quality as crucial predictors.
  • Demonstrated the relevance of firm portfolio risk in assessing the cost of capital.

Conclusions:

  • Non-financial indicators and country institutional quality are vital for predicting the ex-ante cost of equity.
  • Investor risk perception is influenced by a broader set of factors beyond traditional financial metrics.
  • Findings support future research on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria and country factors.