Predictive Capability of Dual Trajectories of Central Adiposity Indices Combined With Glucose for Cardiovascular
Gangjiao Zhu1,2, Xiong Ding1,2, Hui Zhou3
1School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Insights
Distinct patterns of central adiposity and fasting plasma glucose predict cardiovascular disease risk. Waist circumference combined with fasting plasma glucose showed the best predictive performance for cardiovascular disease.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Metabolic Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Central adiposity (CA) and elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) are known risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD).
- Understanding the combined impact of their trajectories is crucial for risk prediction.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the association between dual trajectory patterns of seven CA indices and FPG with CVD risk.
- To compare the predictive performance of these combined patterns for incident CVD.
Main Methods:
- Prospective cohort study (Kailuan Study) of 39,772 adults without pre-existing CVD.
- Dual trajectories of seven CA indices and FPG recorded from 2006-2010 to predict CVD risk (2010-2021).
- Cox regression models used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident CVD.
Main Results:
- 2,715 incident CVD events observed during a median 11.0-year follow-up.
- Four and three distinct patterns identified for different sets of CA indices combined with FPG.
- The highest-risk groups showed significantly elevated CVD risk (adjusted HRs ranging from 1.81 to 2.57).
Conclusions:
- Distinct dual trajectory patterns of CA indices and FPG are associated with CVD risk.
- The combination of waist circumference and FPG demonstrated slightly superior predictive performance for CVD risk.
Background:
This aimed to quantify the association between dual trajectory patterns combining seven central adiposity (CA) indices and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in adults, and to compare their predictive performance.
Methods:
The Kailuan Study, a prospective study initiated in June 2006, included 39 772 adults without pre-existing CVD as of 2010. Dual trajectories of seven CA indices combined with FPG were recorded from 2006 to 2010 to predict CVD risk from 2010 to 2021. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident CVD.
Results:
During a median follow-up of 11.0 years, 2715 incident CVD events were recorded. Four distinct patterns of CA indices (waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio, abdominal volume index, body roundness index) and three distinct patterns of other CA indices (waist-to-hip ratio, conicity index, A body shape index) combined with FPG were identified. Compared with the lowest-risk group, the highest-risk group exhibited a significantly higher CVD risk (adjusted HRs [95% CIs]: 2.41 [2.02-2.86], 2.57 [2.18-3.05], 2.25 [1.92-2.63], 2.35 [2.01-2.73], 2.08 [1.74-2.49], 1.97 [1.72-2.26], 1.81 [1.58-2.07], respectively). Overall, the predictive capabilities were generally similar, with the combination of waist circumference and FPG showing a slightly better predictive performance compared with other patterns.
Conclusions:
Distinct patterns of dual trajectories involving seven CA indices combined with FPG were associated with CVD risk. The results suggest that the combination of waist circumference and FPG may have greater clinical significance in predicting CVD risk.
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