Racial differences in residential mobility after the Flint Water Crisis: A survival analysis

The Flint Water Crisis exposed residents of Flint, Michigan, to a severe public health crisis characterized by elevated lead in water. Past work forecasted accelerated population loss in the years following the crisis. If migration out of Flint differed based on race, ethnicity, and spatial factors, mobility patterns may have exacerbated environmental injustice and residential segregation. Using survival analysis, we examine whether the probability of moving out of Flint between April 25, 2014 (the date of the water source switch), and December 31, 2019, varied by race/ethnicity, controlling for individual-level sociodemographic and area-level environmental characteristics. We leverage data on 10,478 adult Flint residents who enrolled in the Flint Registry and reported residential address histories over 6 years. Results indicate that out-migration from Flint following the water crisis was racially selective: non-Hispanic (NH) White residents were nearly 3 times more likely than NH Black residents to move out of Flint (HR = 2.69, CI: 1.98, 3.65), net of sociodemographic and environmental covariates. Findings cohere with other literature showing that racial privilege may allow White residents to avoid sustained exposure to environmental crises through mobility, while racially and ethnically marginalized groups remain stuck in place. Racial differences in mobility following the Flint Water Crisis may have resulted in elevated exposure to lead-a potent neurotoxin-among the Black community in Flint. Long-term consequences of racially selective mobility on disparities in life-course health and residential segregation warrant further examination.