Spatial and temporal modeling of conflict related fatality and public health implications in Nigeria

Fatality resulting from violent conflicts poses a critical public health challenge in Nigeria, straining healthcare systems, disrupting resource allocation, and necessitating targeted interventions to curb the prevalence and strengthen community resilience. According to the Global Organized Crime and Terrorism Indices, Nigeria is ranked among the top countries most impacted by terrorism in 2020. Despite numerous studies on crimes in Nigeria, adequate attention has not been given to quantifying the patterns of fatalities due to conflict events. This work aims to unveil the subtle spatio-temporal pattern of fatality resulting from violent events in Nigeria over a quarter-century. A spatio-temporal mixed model within a Bayesian framework was adopted, and data was sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. The study found existing temperate seasonality in the pattern of fatalities, with a high fatality impact in Autumn and Winter. Among all the events, sexual violence was the leading cause of fatality in the country. Findings identified spatial and temporal disparities in fatality, with the North-East geopolitical zone being the most exposed region over the years, and uneducated members of poorest households are relatively more at risk of these events. The identified factors and patterns could be relevant for designing sustainable intervention programs or response policies to mitigate violent events in Nigeria.