Bayesian Adaptive Extended Kalman-Based Orbit Determination for Optical Observation Satellites

As the number of satellites and amount of space debris in Low-Earth orbit (LEO) increase, high-precision orbit determination is crucial for ensuring the safe operation of spacecraft and maintaining space situational awareness. However, ground-based optical observations are constrained by limited arc-segment angular data and dynamic noise interference, and the traditional Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) struggles to meet the accuracy and robustness requirements in complex orbital environments. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a Bayesian Adaptive Extended Kalman Filter (BAEKF), which synergistically optimizes track determination through dynamic noise covariance adjustment and Bayesian a posteriori probability correction. Experiments demonstrate that the average root mean square error (RMSE) of BAEKF is reduced by 34.7% compared to the traditional EKF, effectively addressing EKF's accuracy and stability issues in nonlinear systems. The RMSE values of UKF, RBFNN, and GPR also show improvement, providing a reliable solution for high-precision orbital determination using optical observation.