Estimation of electric vehicle lithium-ion battery scrap towards recycling facilities in the EU

The increasing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe, coupled with legislative efforts to reduce combustion engine vehicles, has significantly spurred the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). However, this growth has led to a rapid rise in EV-LIB scrap, from both retired batteries and manufacturing processes, a factor insufficiently addressed in prior research. Our study tackles this issue by assessing the harmonisation of industry projects and examining the recycling facilities' readiness to handle these dual waste streams. We methodically estimate the registrations of new EVs and their anticipated scrap volume, and then project future LIB manufacturing scrap in the EU. Therefore, we assess current and future recycling capacities and evaluate the balance between scrap influx and recycling readiness by 2030. Our findings indicate that the EU is facing a significant recycling challenge. By 2030, about 930 kilotonnes of scrap from the EV-LIB industry will need recycling under the baseline scenario. Although current capacities can handle today's scrap volumes, the disparity between rapidly expanding manufacturing and lagging recycling facilities will result in a shortfall in a few years. Current plans suggest EU recycling facilities will have a capacity of about 785 kilotonnes annually by 2030, which falls short of the dual scrap streams. This research underscores the need for a strategic approach to scale up recycling infrastructure and technology, to emphasise the importance of responsible manufacturing, and to align with the EU's sustainability goals and the growing demands of the EV industry.