Abundance measurements reveal the balance between lysis and lysogeny in the human gut microbiome

The human gut contains diverse communities of bacteriophage, whose interactions with the broader microbiome and potential roles in human health are only beginning to be uncovered. Here, we combine multiple types of data to quantitatively estimate gut phage population dynamics and lifestyle characteristics in human subjects. Unifying results from previous studies, we show that an average human gut contains a low ratio of phage particles to bacterial cells (∼1:100) but a much larger ratio of phage genomes to bacterial genomes (∼4:1), implying that most gut phage are effectively temperate (e.g., integrated prophage and phage-plasmids). By integrating imaging and sequencing data with a generalized model of temperate phage dynamics, we estimate that phage induction and lysis occur at a low average rate (∼0.001-0.01 per bacterium per day), imposing only a modest fitness burden on their bacterial hosts. Consistent with these estimates, we find that the phage composition of a diverse synthetic community in gnotobiotic mice can be quantitatively predicted from bacterial abundances alone while still exhibiting phage diversity comparable to native human microbiomes. These results provide a foundation for interpreting existing and future studies on links between the gut virome and human health.