Complications during Adolescence Predict Mortality in Young Adults with Childhood Onset Type 1 Diabetes

Microvascular complications increase the risk of cardiovascular disease and premature death in adults with type 1 diabetes. We examined the association between microvascular complications during adolescence, including cardiac autonomic nerve dysfunction and subsequent mortality. Research Design and Methods. We undertook data linkage with the Australian National Death Index in a cohort of 409 adolescents (diagnosed between 1973 and 1993), 48% male, median age at final complications assessment 17.4 years (interquartile range: 16.0-18.9), followed longitudinally for median 22.3 years (21.0-23.4) from diagnosis. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to examine associations between mortality and adolescent complications. Mortality risk was calculated as standardized mortality ratio (SMR).

At final adolescent visit, 20% had CAN abnormality, 30% abnormal pupillary response, 20% albuminuria, 40% early elevation of albumin excretion rate (AER) and 45% retinopathy. Data linkage 8-13 years later showed 14 were deceased (3% of cohort), 57% male, median age 28.3 years (24.8-32.9). Acute or chronic diabetes complications accounted for 25% of deaths. In multivariable GEE, elevated AER (OR 4.54, 1.23-16.80, p=0.030), pupillary abnormality (OR 4.27, 1.20-15.22, p=0.023), systolic blood pressure SDS (OR 2.17, 1.26-3.74, p=0.005) and CAN (OR 4.65, 1.03-21.0, p=0.045) predicted mortality. HbA1c was not significant. SMR was 2.5 (1.4-4.2) and was higher in females (SMR 3.5, 1.3-7.8) but not in males (SMR 2.1, 0.9-4.0).

Mortality in young adults with type 1 diabetes is predicted by subclinical markers of autonomic neuropathy and elevated AER during adolescence, but not glycemia. Mortality was over twice that of the background population in females but not in males.