Epidemiological Risk Factors and Modelling Approaches for Risk Assessment of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Introduction...

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Epidemiology
• Disease Modelling
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a significant vector-borne threat caused by the lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV).
• LSDV is spreading through Asia, posing a substantial risk to Australia's cattle industry, despite not yet occurring in the country.
• Geospatial decision support tools are crucial for assessing and managing LSDV risks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate existing LSDV epidemiological models.
• To identify key risk factors for LSDV introduction and spread.
• To consider control strategies for LSDV, informing risk-based surveillance design for Australia.

Main Methods:

• A comprehensive literature review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines.
• PICO methodology was used to formulate search terms across four databases.
• 68 articles were included, extracting data on model structure, parameterization, risk factors, and control strategies.

Main Results:

• Key LSDV transmission risk factors include airborne vector movement (e.g., stable flies) and cattle movement.
• LSDV spread is influenced by environmental factors, weather, and livestock/vector populations.
• Most existing models focus on LSDV transmission mechanisms or spread in endemic regions; few address introduction risks in LSD-free countries, and none explore spread post-introduction or geospatial suitability for incursions.

Conclusions:

• There is a significant gap in the literature regarding LSDV spread and geospatial modeling in LSD-free countries like Australia.
• Existing models primarily focus on endemic settings and lack Australia-specific risk factor analysis.
• Developing Australia-specific geospatial models incorporating identified risk factors is essential for effective, risk-based surveillance.