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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 9, 2025

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Quantifying Spillover Risk with an Integrated Bat-Rabies Dynamic Modeling Framework.

Eva Janoušková1, Jennifer Rokhsar1, Manuel Jara2

  • 1School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
|April 30, 2025
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Vampire bat rabies is a major threat in Latin America. Controlling bat rabies in roosts is the most effective strategy to prevent disease spread to cattle farms.

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Disease Ecology
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Vampire bat-transmitted rabies is the primary cause of rabies mortality in humans and livestock across Latin America.
  • Assessing the risk of rabies transmission from bats to other animal species is a critical regional priority.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an integrated dynamic modeling framework to quantify rabies spillover risk from bats to cattle farms.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of different control strategies for mitigating bat-rabies transmission.

Main Methods:

  • A spatially explicit dynamic model was developed and calibrated using real roost and farm locations in São Paulo.
  • Ecological niche modeling integrated roost and farm characteristics with environmental data to modulate transmission risk.
  • Simulations assessed interventions targeting bat roosts (culling, vaccination) and cattle farms (vaccination).

Main Results:

  • Both roost- and farm-based interventions significantly reduced cattle farm outbreaks and disease spread.
  • Interventions focused on bat roosts demonstrated superior effectiveness in controlling disease transmission.
  • The study identified high-risk areas, providing valuable data for targeted control programs.

Conclusions:

  • Controlling rabies at the source in bat roosts is a highly effective strategy for preventing spillover to cattle.
  • The developed modeling framework can support evidence-based decision-making for rabies control in Latin America.
  • Identifying high-risk areas enhances the efficiency and impact of ongoing disease management programs.