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Side effects may include: Consequence neglect in generating solutions.

Christopher Rodriguez1, Daniel M Oppenheimer1

  • 1Department of Social & Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Problem solvers often overlook negative consequences due to focalism, a cognitive bias. This "consequence neglect" means unintended outcomes are ignored unless explicitly considered, impacting strategy and policy.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive psychology
  • Decision-making science
  • Behavioral economics

Background:

  • Strategies often yield unintended negative consequences.
  • These foreseeable outcomes are frequently overlooked during strategy development and evaluation.
  • This oversight stems from a cognitive bias, not a knowledge deficit.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Introduce and define "consequence neglect," a cognitive bias.
  • Explain how focalism contributes to overlooking downstream effects.
  • Provide empirical evidence for the existence of consequence neglect.

Main Methods:

  • Four empirical studies were conducted.
  • Participants evaluated strategies, with some prompted to consider both positive and negative consequences.
  • Behavioral data was collected to assess strategy evaluation and consequence generation.

Main Results:

  • Individuals rated strategies more negatively when prompted to consider negative outcomes.
  • This suggests negative consequences are not inherently weighted in decision-making.
  • Attention explicitly drawn to negative outcomes influences strategy perception.

Conclusions:

  • Consequence neglect is a significant cognitive bias affecting problem-solving.
  • This bias has broad implications for policymaking, business strategy, and general decision-making.
  • Future research should explore interventions to mitigate consequence neglect.