Side effects may include: Consequence neglect in generating solutions

Area of Science:

• Cognitive psychology
• Decision-making science
• Behavioral economics

Background:

• Strategies often yield unintended negative consequences.
• These foreseeable outcomes are frequently overlooked during strategy development and evaluation.
• This oversight stems from a cognitive bias, not a knowledge deficit.

Purpose of the Study:

• Introduce and define "consequence neglect," a cognitive bias.
• Explain how focalism contributes to overlooking downstream effects.
• Provide empirical evidence for the existence of consequence neglect.

Main Methods:

• Four empirical studies were conducted.
• Participants evaluated strategies, with some prompted to consider both positive and negative consequences.
• Behavioral data was collected to assess strategy evaluation and consequence generation.

Main Results:

• Individuals rated strategies more negatively when prompted to consider negative outcomes.
• This suggests negative consequences are not inherently weighted in decision-making.
• Attention explicitly drawn to negative outcomes influences strategy perception.

Conclusions:

• Consequence neglect is a significant cognitive bias affecting problem-solving.
• This bias has broad implications for policymaking, business strategy, and general decision-making.
• Future research should explore interventions to mitigate consequence neglect.