Charting the invasion: Predicting Tubastraea spp. next move into Brazilian marine protected areas

In the late 1980s, the sun coral, Tubastraea spp. (Scleractinia; Dendrophylliidae), was introduced to Brazil via biofouling on oil platforms and drilling vessels. Today, these corals have spread over 3000 km of the Brazilian coast, colonizing a range of habitats, including oil platforms, drilling ships, monobuoys and natural reefs. Concerned about the potential impacts on Brazilian marine ecosystems, management actions have been implemented in various regions. To achieve success in management, early detection and monitoring are essential. To address this need, our study focuses on modeling the habitat suitability for Tubastraea spp. along the Brazilian coast, aiming to support control and monitoring activities within marine protected areas (MPAs). By utilizing habitat suitability models that incorporate both environmental and anthropogenic predictors, our results indicate a broad potential distribution for Tubastraea spp., with oil and gas extraction identified as the primary influencing factor. Our analysis ranked the most vulnerable Brazilian MPAs to Tubastraea spp. invasion, highlighting the Arapiranga-Tromaí Extractive Reserve, Trindade and Martim Vaz Islands Natural Monument, and the Costa dos Corais Environmental Protected Area as the most threatened. This study offers valuable insights into prioritizing efforts and resources for the control, monitoring, and prevention of sun coral invasion along the Brazilian coast, particularly in light of ongoing discussions about the oil industry's plans to operate at the Amazon River mouth.