Data-validated material flow analysis with end-of-life sampling for accurate plastic waste management in China

Material Flow Analysis (MFA) is essential for studying plastic pollution management issues. Current research is primarily based on statistical estimation, which lacks data in the end-of-life (EOL) stage, leading to the poor accuracy of plastic environmental leakage estimation. Moreover, it is impossible to provide sub-component data to support the practical management goals. This study obtained the EOL metabolism data of China's plastic waste through sampling methods and extended the accuracy to the 11 subdivided plastics material level. In 2020, China's plastic recycling rate was 35.65 %, a relatively high level globally. The incineration, landfill, and recycling rates of different plastics vary greatly. The results demonstrated that due to parameter settings, the incineration, landfill, and recycling rates across different plastics appeared similar. The proportion of environmental leakage is only 0.59 %, which is far lower than the results estimated based on statistical data studies. Future MFA research for plastics wastes should focus on verifiable research methods with actual sampling at the EOL stage to further identify regulatory priorities and country-specific responsibilities.