A new approach to estimate the heat thresholds at the county level in China

High temperature beyond the comfort threshold is the main hazard to cause heat-related mortality. However, existing methods of defining the heat thresholds are usually based on case studies in data-rich regions and rarely considers the acclimatization.

Based on the temperature-mortality relationship observed in 36 locations covering all six major climate zones in China, we found that the relative risk (RR) of heat-related mortality and the annual frequency of temperature (AFT) have a power function relationship (adjusted R² = 0.74)), and the association is independent to the variation of the temperature across the territory. Furthermore, the association is slightly changed when the GDP/capita, proportion of elderly population and latitude are adjusted. According to this association, we proposed a new method to choose the heat threshold at finer resolution using only AFT. As the temperature frequency is easy to calculate, this method can be promoted to any geographical location without mortality data.

According to the relationship between AFT and RR, using the daily time series of temperature at 2405 observation stations in China, we estimated and mapped the distribution of heat thresholds at the county level across China. We find that when the AFT is just 1 day per year, the corresponding RR is approximately 1.4 (95% CI, 1.2-1.8). As the AFT increases to 5 days per year, the RR decreases to about 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1-1.3). When the AFT reached 10 days per year, the RR further decreased to about 1.05 (95% CI, 1.0-1.1).

This study advances the understanding on the driver of human beings' adaptation to high temperature. It also contributes significantly to the research on heat-related mortality in the context of global climate change.