Compound drought and heatwave extreme weather events: Mortality risk in individuals with chronic respiratory disease

Compound extreme weather events are severe weather conditions that can jointly magnify human health risks beyond any single event alone. Drought and heatwaves are extreme weather conditions associated with adverse health, but their combined impact is poorly understood.

We designed a case-crossover study to estimate heatwave-associated mortality stratified by drought conditions in 183,725 US Veteran patients (2016-2021) with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A conditional logistic regression with distributed lag models was applied. Droughts were categorized into binary and categorical metrics, and we further explored the timing of heatwaves as a risk factor.

Our results indicate that drought amplifies heatwaves with hotter temperatures and longer durations during drought conditions, and the percentage of mortality attributable to heatwaves during drought was 7.41% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.91, 12.28) compared with 2.91% (95% CI: 0.00, 4.76) for heatwaves during nondrought conditions. Heatwaves that occurred during drought conditions in the late warm season had a larger association with mortality compared with late-season heatwaves during nondrought conditions, 7.41% (95% CI: 1.96, 13.04) of mortality events and 0.99% (95% CI: -1.01, 3.85) of mortality events attributable to these exposures, respectively.

Compound drought and heatwave events trend toward increased mortality risk among patients with COPD and present a growing human health threat under climate change. Existing heat warnings and vulnerability maps may include drought conditions to better capture heat-related public health risks.