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Principles of Clinical Prediction Model Development and Validation
Alastair Fung1, Joseph Beyene2, Rishi P Mediratta3
1Division of Paediatric Medicine, Department of Paediatrics, The Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Abstract:
Clinical prediction models help inform health care professionals, patients, and their families about the risks of disease or a future outcome and guide decision-making aimed at mitigating these risks. In this article, we review the principles of clinical prediction model development and validation, including predictor selection, model performance measures, internal validation, translation of a model to a scoring rule for clinical application, and external validation. We illustrate each principle using a published example of a prediction model developed to predict the presence of invasive bacterial infection in well-appearing febrile infants aged no more than 60 days presenting to emergency departments.
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