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This study introduces interval payoffs and reference points into vaccination games. Findings show vaccination equilibrium is influenced by costs, reference points, and individual sensitivity, impacting public health strategies.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Evolutionary Game Theory
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Traditional models use fixed payoffs and reference points, limiting the capture of real-world cost and payoff variability.
  • Psychological factors significantly influence decision-making, yet are often simplified in economic models.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce interval payoffs and reference points into an evolutionary vaccination game model.
  • To evaluate the impact of psychological factors, including prospect theory, on vaccination strategy dynamics.
  • To analyze how cost-effectiveness and individual perception influence vaccination equilibrium.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a prospect theory-based evolutionary vaccination game model.
  • Incorporation of interval payoffs and reference points to simulate fluctuating costs and benefits.
  • Analysis of vaccination equilibrium under varying cost, payoff, and sensitivity parameters.

Main Results:

  • Higher reference points and lower vaccination costs showed limited impact on equilibrium unless interval payoffs were small.
  • Increasing vaccination costs significantly decreased vaccination equilibrium.
  • Vaccination equilibrium decreased as objective payoffs neared reference points with lower rationality, and increased with greater deviation.

Conclusions:

  • Vaccination decisions are complex, influenced by both objective cost-effectiveness and subjective psychological factors like reference points and sensitivity.
  • Interval payoffs and reference points offer a more nuanced understanding of vaccination dynamics compared to fixed models.
  • Public health strategies should consider individual perception patterns and cost-benefit analyses for optimal vaccination uptake.