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Emerging trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train in a warming climate
Jee-Hoon Jeong1, Min-Seok Kim2, Jin-Ho Yoon3
1Department of Environment and Energy, Sejong University, Seoul, South Korea.
Science Advances
|May 2, 2025
Summary
A new atmospheric pattern, the trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train, is intensifying summer heatwaves and droughts across Eurasia. Recent events are unprecedented, signaling a major shift in climate patterns due to global warming.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Climate Dynamics
- Paleoclimatology
Background:
- The late 20th century saw the emergence of the trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train, an atmospheric teleconnection pattern.
- This pattern correlates with increased concurrent heatwave-drought events across Eastern Europe and East Asia during summer.
- Historically, the circumglobal teleconnection dominated Eurasian heatwaves, but it shows no trend with current global warming.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the intensification of the trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train.
- To compare the recent trend of this emerging pattern with historical climate data.
- To identify the underlying mechanisms driving this shift in Eurasian climate patterns.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of tree-ring proxies spanning three centuries to reconstruct historical climate data.
- Comparison of the emerging trans-Eurasian pattern with the historical circumglobal teleconnection.
- Investigation of atmospheric mechanisms including Rossby wave propagation, sea surface temperatures, and land-atmosphere interactions.
- Utilizing climate models to project future trends.
Main Results:
- The recent intensity of the trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train is unprecedented in the last three centuries.
- The circumglobal teleconnection, historically dominant, shows no trend with global warming.
- The pattern is driven by Rossby wave propagation linked to North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Sahel precipitation, amplified by anthropogenic warming and natural variability.
- Regional intensification is further driven by land-atmosphere interactions due to soil moisture deficits.
Conclusions:
- The trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train represents a significant and unprecedented shift in Eurasian heatwave-drought climatologies.
- This emerging pattern is driven by a combination of natural variability and anthropogenic warming.
- Climate models project a continued strengthening of this pattern throughout the 21st century.
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