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Confidence signalling aids deception in strategic interactions.

Briony D Pulford1, Marta Mangiarulo2, Andrew M Colman2

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In coordination games, confidence signals help players make rewarding choices. However, this study shows that better-informed players sometimes use confidence signals deceptively to gain personal advantage.

Keywords:
Asymmetric informationConfidence heuristicDeadlock gameDeceptionIncomplete informationProsociality

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Game Theory
  • Social Psychology

Background:

  • Confidence signalling facilitates coordination when players aim for mutual benefit.
  • The 'confidence heuristic' aids decision-making in coordination games.
  • Previous research confirmed confidence heuristic use in experimental coordination games.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate deceptive uses of confidence signalling in strategic interactions.
  • To determine if better-informed players misrepresent confidence for selfish gain.
  • To explore deception in asymmetric information settings.

Main Methods:

  • Studied 55 dyads in strategic games with incomplete and asymmetric information.
  • Participants decided which shape best matched a target shape.
  • Monetary incentives were based on the Deadlock game structure.

Main Results:

  • Players with superior information reported higher confidence.
  • A significant minority of trials involved deceptive tactics by informed players.
  • Deception primarily involved withholding correct information initially.

Conclusions:

  • Confidence signalling can be used deceptively, even without explicit lying.
  • Strategic deception is a factor in asymmetric information environments.
  • Understanding confidence signalling is crucial for analyzing strategic interactions.