Potential indications for liver transplant in Child-Pugh A and Model for End-stage Liver Disease exception for...

In 2019, expanded criteria for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), known as 5-5-500 (size ≤5 cm, number ≤5, alpha-fetoprotein ≤500 ng/mL), as well as Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception, were implemented in Japan. In the present study, we evaluated liver transplantation indications and the Japanese allocation policy for HCC.

Adults with HCC were evaluated between January 2013 and December 2017 in a multicenter study in Japan. The patients were aged ≤65 years, in line with the limits of Japanese transplant center limits.

HCC patients (n = 289) were classified as Child-Pugh A (74%), B (18%), or C (8%). Of these, 178 (62%) and 185 (64%) met the Milan and 5-5-500 criteria, respectively. The respective 1- and 5-year overall survival rates of patients who met the criteria were 100% and 88.1% in Child-Pugh A, 91.7% and 30.6% in B, and 72.9% and 0% in C without access to liver transplantation. For Child-Pugh A patients, we developed a risk score using the Child-Pugh score, des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin, tumor-node-metastasis stage grade, as well as albumin-bilirubin and albumin-bilirubin tumor-node-metastasis stage , which predicted worse prognosis. Additionally, we showed the characteristics of patients who achieved MELD exception points high enough to receive an organ: survival at least 2 years after waitlist registration, relatively good liver functional reserve, and sufficient tumor control with multiple treatments.

High-risk patients, identified by our scoring system and albumin-bilirubin tumor-node-metastasis stage ≥2 in Child-Pugh A, should be considered for liver transplantation eligibility. The allocation policy for HCC should be revised based on precise evaluations on a regular basis.