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Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment01:17

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Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
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Developing national-scale basic guideline on flood-adaptation strategies under climate change using probabilistic and

Takeshi Osawa1, Gen Sakurai2, Atsushi Wakai2

  • 1Graduate School of Urban Environmental Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Minami-Osawa 1-1, Hachiouji, Tokyo, 192-0397, Japan.

Water Research
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PubMed
Summary

Climate change increases flood risks. This study quantifies probabilistic and deterministic factors to guide flood adaptation strategies, prioritizing areas for structural and ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) measures.

Keywords:
Climate change adaptationEco-DRREcosystem serviceFloodingGreen infrastructureRainfall

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Adaptation
  • Disaster Risk Reduction

Background:

  • Climate change exacerbates flood risks, complicating the identification of vulnerable areas for effective adaptation.
  • Flood events are influenced by both probabilistic (hazard) and deterministic (vulnerability) factors.
  • Quantifying these factors is crucial for developing targeted flood management strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To establish guidelines for flood adaptation strategies by simultaneously considering probabilistic and deterministic factors.
  • To model flood occurrence and classify municipalities based on these factors to inform adaptation planning.

Main Methods:

  • Investigated 1795 Japanese municipalities, modeling flood occurrence from 2010-2019 using government statistics.
  • Utilized rainfall indicators as probabilistic factors and terrain/land use as deterministic factors.
  • Employed nonhierarchical clustering to categorize municipalities into six distinct clusters based on quantified factors.

Main Results:

  • Successfully classified Japanese municipalities into six clusters based on combined probabilistic and deterministic flood risk factors.
  • Demonstrated the feasibility of developing tailored adaptation strategies for each cluster.
  • Identified specific recommendations, such as reinforcing structural measures in high-risk increase clusters and enhancing existing measures in stable clusters.

Conclusions:

  • A simultaneous consideration of probabilistic and deterministic factors provides a robust framework for flood adaptation planning.
  • Cluster-based strategies enable targeted interventions, optimizing the allocation of resources for climate adaptation.
  • This approach supports the development of resilient communities against increasing flood risks under climate change.