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Core GRADE 3: rating certainty of evidence-assessing inconsistency
Gordon Guyatt1,2,3, Stefan Schandelmaier4,5,6, Romina Brignardello-Petersen7
1Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada guyatt@mcmaster.ca.
This article introduces the Core GRADE approach for assessing evidence certainty when study results vary. It guides researchers on handling inconsistency to ensure reliable systematic reviews and recommendations.
Area of Science:
- Evidence-based medicine
- Systematic review methodology
Background:
- Inconsistency in study results can reduce the certainty of evidence.
- The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework addresses evidence certainty.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present the Core GRADE approach for evaluating evidence certainty when unexplained variability exists across studies.
- To provide a systematic method for handling inconsistent findings in systematic reviews.
Main Methods:
- Assessing consistency of relative effects for binary outcomes and absolute effects for continuous outcomes.
- Developing a priori hypotheses to explain potential inconsistency.
- Judging inconsistency magnitude by point estimate differences and confidence interval overlap.
- Evaluating individual study estimates against predefined thresholds.
- Testing subgroup hypotheses to explain heterogeneity.
Main Results:
- If a credible subgroup effect is found, separate evidence summaries and certainty ratings are provided for each subgroup.
- If no credible subgroup effect is identified, a single evidence summary is presented, with potential rating down for inconsistency.
Conclusions:
- The Core GRADE approach offers a structured method for managing inconsistency in systematic reviews.
- This methodology aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of evidence certainty assessments, leading to more robust recommendations.
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