Links between sea surface temperature anomalies and seismic activity in the Red Sea across multiple temporal scales

This study evaluates the links between seismic activity and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Red Sea from 2003 to 2020. We utilized the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) and ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (version 9.0) provided by the Global Earthquake Risk Model (GEM) Organizations and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua satellite SST data. Trend analysis indicates that the northern and southern regions exhibited distinct SST changes, with a robust gradient of warming signals from the north to the south. In addition, we assessed the association between seismic activity and SST anomalies across various timescales (daily, annual, and decadal) in the Red Sea. Overall, results suggest a consistent negative correlation between SST changes and seismic activity at the multidecadal and annual scales. At these longer timescales (i.e., annual and decadal), seismic events, even with micro magnitudes (less than 3) as in the northern Red Sea, may contribute to localized and slow negative SST anomalies. This negative feedback may be attributed to the reduction in hydrostatic pressure on the sea crust as a result of the formation of new crusts in response to the divergence of tectonic plates. On the other hand, at shorter scales (daily or weekly), the results indicate SST warming before seismic events and SST cooling during and after the seismic events. This pattern indicates that lithostatic pressure changes and geothermal flux are likely to impact SST shortly before seismic activity. Nevertheless, the long-term variability of SST is less significantly impacted by these localized and short-term anomalies. Overall, the intricacy of SST-seismic interactions has implications for acquiring and understanding the behavior of the dynamic marine environment and earthquake forecasting, but further studies are needed to confirm these potential interactions.