Weakened snow and ice melting by enhanced cloud short-wave cooling effect in the Arctic

Clouds and surface albedo significantly affect the energy balance on Earth. With the snow/ice melting in the Arctic, an understanding of how this impacts short-wave cloud radiative effects (CRE) remains a critical, yet poorly understood, question. We analysed snow/ice coverage (SIC) changes and their impact on the CRE in the Arctic from the past to the present and to future scenarios. From 2000 to 2020, the SIC decreased by -0.058/decade, leading to CRE changes (∆CRE) at the top of the atmosphere and surface by -1.25 ± 0.49 and -0.21 ± 0.20 W/m²/decade, with an average reduction in the sea ice melting rate ([Formula: see text]) of 3.45 cm/year. The sea ice coverage and the CRE remained relatively stable from 1850 to 1915, followed by dramatic declines in both sea ice coverage and CRE under both 245 and 585 shared socio-economic pathways post-2015. The snow/ice loss amplifies the cloud-induced short-wave cooling effect, partly slowing further melting yet not preventing overall snow/ice loss.