Resilience to abrupt global catastrophic risks disrupting trade: Combining urban and near-urban agriculture in a quantified case study of a globally median-sized city
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Urban agriculture can significantly enhance city resilience to global catastrophic risks (GCRs). Optimized urban and near-urban farming can feed a city, even under nuclear winter conditions, minimizing fuel needs.
Area Of Science
- Agricultural Science
- Environmental Science
- Urban Planning
Background
- Global catastrophic risks (GCRs) pose a threat to global trade and critical commodities like liquid fuels.
- Industrial food production relies heavily on these commodities, making it vulnerable to GCRs.
- Urban agriculture has been proposed as a resilience strategy against climate change and natural hazards.
Purpose Of The Study
- To estimate the resilience contribution of urban agriculture to GCRs.
- To assess the role of near-urban industrial agriculture in supplementing urban food production.
- To model food security under various GCR scenarios.
Main Methods
- Mathematical optimization determined optimal crops for calorie and protein yield per land area.
- Google Earth analysis quantified available urban and near-urban land for agriculture.
- Calculated population feeding capacity of urban agriculture and land needed for industrial agriculture supplementation.
Main Results
- Optimal urban crops: peas (normal), sugar beet/spinach (nuclear winter). Optimal industrial crops: potatoes (normal), wheat/carrots (nuclear winter).
- Urban agriculture can feed 20% of a city's population.
- 1140 hectares of near-urban land needed for shortfall; 110 hectares for biofuel feedstock (canola). Increased area required for nuclear winter scenarios.
Conclusions
- Optimized urban and near-urban agriculture can sustain a median-sized city during GCRs, reducing fuel dependency.
- Policy changes encouraging urban agriculture and local biofuel production are recommended.
- Land-use policies should support urban agriculture and cultivation of optimal crops for resilience.
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