Delay preference in intertemporal choice: Sooner or later OR faster or slower?

Area of Science:

• Behavioral economics
• Decision science
• Psychology

Background:

• Intertemporal choices traditionally focus on sooner vs. later outcomes.
• Most research uses single-dated outcomes, limiting understanding of decision processes.
• An alternative framing considers the speed of outcome accumulation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To empirically distinguish between sooner-or-later and faster-or-slower models of intertemporal choice.
• To assess model generalizability using choices with single and multiple dated outcomes (payment sequences).
• To evaluate parameter generalizability by linking preferences for multiple payments to single payment preferences.

Main Methods:

• An experiment involving choices between single-dated outcomes and outcome sequences (monetary losses).
• Development of convergent and discriminant validity criteria for model assessment.
• Fully Bayesian analysis to compare model performance.

Main Results:

• The faster-or-slower model demonstrated superior predictive power over the sooner-or-later model.
• The faster-or-slower model showed better generalizability across different choice structures.
• Bayesian analysis strongly favored the faster-or-slower model.

Conclusions:

• The faster-or-slower model provides a more accurate account of intertemporal decision-making, particularly for losses.
• Experimental designs incorporating outcome sequences are crucial for distinguishing between decision models.
• Individual differences in loss timing preferences can be effectively modeled.